Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Tuesday (Sorry I have nothing more clever)

The early news out of West Virginia is that Mike Huckabee pulled a surprise victory over Mitt Romney (expected to win). This could be good news for Huckabee or bad news for Romney. I think it just means we will be in for lots of surprises tonight.

I was going to write a long detailed prediction with state by state analysis, but it's a cold rainy day today, and I'm saving up all my energy to get to the Caucus tonight.

So here is my quick summary. No Democrat will pull forward. Both Clinton and Obama will win some and lose some, but remember, in the end it is the number of delegates that count. Obama will do well in the smaller states, especially in the South, and he will clean up in his home state of Illinois. Clinton will win a sizable portion of the New York delegates, and win New Jersey and the Northeast along with it. Clinton will squeak by with a popular vote win in California, but Obama will get enough delegates that it will be a virtual tie. In Kansas, Obama will get a clear Caucus win. In Missouri, Obama will win in a very close contest. Overall, Obama will come out with a few more votes and a few more delegates than Clinton. On the whole, expect Obama to get about 52% of the vote to Hillary's 48% (if you averaged the percentages from all states).

As for the Republicans - I'm not so sure McCain has it in the bag. I think Romney will win California, and Huckabee will win a handful of smaller states, especially in his home state of Arkansas and overall in the South. Romney wins in Massachussetts and the Northeast. McCain still comes out ahead, but not with enough delegates to solidify the nomination. I'd look to Kansas on Saturday as an indicator of who the Republicans really want for President.

Hope everyone had a chance to get out and vote today!

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