Thursday, January 31, 2008

The Republican Playground

Did you see that so-called Republican "debate," held at the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley California, last night??? If not you can see it here and probably here soon.

I think the Republicans should be disgraced by how their candidates acted in this debate. Romney and McCain were like kids on the playground arguing over the tether ball. Frankly, arguing over what Romney did or didn't say a year ago is a waste of our time (see clip below for the Romney/McCain bickering) - the American people need to know how maintaining troops in Iraq keeps us safer, why the sacrifice of life and money are worth it, and how they intend to finance this war in the long term.

McCain was disrespectful to all the other candidates. He kept laughing and grinning at Romney and Paul as if he were superior to them, like a bully on the playground. McCain has, in every debate, laughed Paul down, dismissing him as a looney. I realize Paul has radical libertarian ideas, and his ideas don't fit the current Republican landscape, but he still has legitimate ideas that should be considered and respected. Overall I think McCain is a good guy, and he has a good record in the Senate and he is a true war hero. But this bullying is unbecoming and disrespectful. My advice to McCain - stop the playing around and ACT presidential!

In the end Huckabee came out ahead. Huckabee was humble, classy, and respectful. He stuck to talking about his positions, and he was elegant in doing so. I realize that Huckabee is a scary candidate as far as his policies, especially social policy, but he the only one actually acting presidential. He has intelligence, wit & charm, and charisma, this is why he is still in the race.

And the media - a total bias towards "front-runners" - they gave Paul and Huckabee very little airtime, and did not ask them the same questions they asked Romney/McCain. During one of the other Republican debates one of the hosts literally picked on and laughed at Paul. Again, I'm not supporting Paul, but their should be a better system of fair play for candidates to get out their message. Let the voters decide if Paul's ideas are over-the-top or not. More candidates should be given a fair and equal chance to make their case. If the so-called "fringe" candidates are truly on the fringe, let the voters decide, not the media. I don't care who the candidate is - Paul, Kucinich, Nader, or even Alan Keyes. Let them debate, and let them debate at the same level as the front-runners. One shouldn't have to have a ton of money like Ross Perot to get noticed.

Ronald Reagan would be ashamed...

Saturday, January 26, 2008

South Carolina Primary

Obama will win, and big!
Clinton will come in second, but don't be surprised if Edwards gives her a challege.
If Clinton falls to third, it will be her (and Bill's) extremely rotten negative campaigning that did the trick.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Nevada Goes To Romney and Clinton

The South Carolina results are starting to come in, but no winner yet. The big news - I PICKED correctly the winners in Nevada! With 97% of precincts reporting in Nevada, Mitt Romney wins for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton wins for the Democrats; both candidates getting approximately 51% of the vote in their respective parties. For the Demmocrats Obama comes in second with a strong 45% of the vote. Edwards comes in third with a weak 3.76% showing. I was a little surprised Edwards didn't do better and at least get 15% of the vote; without 15% he will not be awarded any delegates from Nevada. On the Republican side, the BIG surprise is Ron Paul coming in second with nearly 14% of the vote. The Republicans do not have a 15% threshold, so this means Paul will receive some delegates. McCain comes in third with close to 13% of the vote.

More to come...

Presidential Politics - Nevada & South Carolina

First, I apologize for missing Michigan! The Michigan Republican primary was a tough one to call - I'm not sure who I would have chosen anyway. Mitt Romney won, and I can certainly see why with hi s father being a former governor and Mitt himself having big ties to the state. Romney's win mixes up the Republican race once again, with three different candidates winning primaries, and goes to show that the Republicans are torn about who they want for President.

The Democratic primary in Michigan was for all intents and purposes void. Obama and Edwards did not bother putting their names on the ballot. Because of a state party dispute with the National Democratic Party, Michigan delegates won't be seated at the National Convention. I'm not sure what it's all about, but I know it had something to do with Michigan deciding to hold their primary earlier than national rules allow.

Now, for today - South Carolina Republicans are holding their primary (Democrats are next Saturday) and Nevada has both Republican and Democratic Caucuses today.

Here are my predictions:

South Carolina:
Republican -
  1. 1. Mike Huckabee - South Carolina Republicans are religious voters and they will vote for the most evangelical candidate. Huckabee is that man.
  2. 2. John McCain - For everyone else, there is McCain.
  3. 3. Fred Thompson - Thompson is the second most conservative candidate for the Republicans. He's also a big fan with gun owners.

Mitt Romney will be upset in South Carolina, as he just doesn't hold much appeal in the South. Look for this to hurt his "electibility" factor nationally.

Republican -
  1. 1. Mitt Romney - Republicans haven't spent much time in Nevada (instead focusing on South Carolina), so Mitt Romney leads in polls.
  2. 2. John McCain - A solid second place for McCain.
  3. 3. Mike Huckabee - Squeaks into third, as Nevada voters aren't big fans.

Democrats -
  1. 1. Hillary Clinton - In a super close race, Clinton will squeak out the win over Obama.
  2. 2. Barack Obama - He has lots of support in Nevada, including the largest union in the state, but he just can't stop Hillary's organizing power. Obama fans, don't despair, I am positive Obama will win in South Carolina next Saturday!
  3. 3. John Edwards - Edwards will get a very strong third place finish and he could potentially upset Hilary or Obama in Nevada.

In closing, today will be a big day for the candidates, but don't look for anything to be decides. This years race will go down to the nominating conventions in August and September.

Also, I have some more thoughts about Edwards, and about Vice Presidential politics in this race. Tune in later.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Watch/Listen/Read All the Presidential Debates

Hello Friends.

Check this out - you can find all the Presidential debates in one place!

2008 Presidential Debate Series

Best of all - they are closed captioned for the hearing impaired. But don't worry, the audio is working too.

New Hampshire - Hillary wins Democratic primary, and John McCain wins Republican primary. I was totally wrong about Democrats in New Hampshire, and so was the force known as the "media" and so were the polls. This, ladies and gentlemen, is why we vote! Here is an interesting article by media journalists about "Why Reporters Get it Wrong."
Or you could just take Stephen Colbert's explanation:
"If you keep voting the way you want, rather than the way we tell you you want, then pundits are going to stop telling you how to think!"

This video is also a funny, yet scary, Colbert interview with Republican Mike Huckabee. I say scary because people might actually vote for Huckabee simply because he promised Colbert the VP position!

An interesting fact about NH. While Hillary did win the highest percentage of votes with 38.99% of the vote, both Obama and Clinton actually get the same amount of "pledged" delegates for New Hampshire. There were 22 pledged delegates, and because Obama got only 2.6% less of the vote (36.39%) then mathematically they both ended up with 9 pledged delegates a piece, and John Edwards gets the other 4. You have to receive at least 15% of the vote to get delegates and John Edwards got 16.91%. I am not an expert on the process, but I know that the way in which a candidate is technically chosen as a Party's nominee is by getting the most delegates in her/his name at the Party's nominating convention. Thus, technically Obama and Clinton are very close (if not tied) with total delegates after Iowa and New Hampshire. I only say close because I don't know how Iowa assigns delegates exactly and they didn't assign them right away. So while both Clinton and Obama might not be that far apart in delegates, in reality it is the perception that one candidate or the other is "winning" that actually matters the most!

John Edwards - What should do John Edwards do? Well, it's no secret that if John Edwards dropped out then Obama would have a greater chance of beating Clinton as inevitably Edwards would put his weight (and votes) behind Obama. Obama and Edwards have been very close in philosophy, and actually have been known to team up on Clinton (see New Hampshire ABC debate from link above). While this may be true, I believe Edwards should keep fighting for multiple reasons - 1) He is a very strong candidate by himself. Unfortunately, he is being overshadowed by the popularity of Obama and Clinton, and it doesn't help that he is the "old white guy" in this race. 2) To keep Clinton and Obama honest and on their feet. 3) To show he is a viable VP candidate in 2008 (I think he would make a strong addition to the Obama ticket) and 4) Anything can happen!

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Presidential Politics New Hampshire Style

Turns out I was right on with my Iowa predictions for Democratic presidential hopefuls. With Republicans, I knew that Ron Paul was a long shot for third, but I got Huckabee and Romney correct. Now for some news -

If you don't already know - Democrats Chris Dodd and Joe Biden drop out of race.

New Hampshire primary is today -

My Thoughts:

Democrats: Obama "fever" has struck and his momentum is too strong to stop. Hilary Clinton is self-destructing - read this article in today's New York times about some very out-of-line comments from Hilary. Furthermore, this article in Politico describes the "panic" mode at Clinton campaign headquarters. The polls show Obama in first, Hilary in second, and Edwards in third. The real question is, can Hilary hold on to second? Look for Edwards to make a surprise second place showing.

Republicans: The media says John McCain has a big lead in New Hampshire. I imagine that the New Hampshire Republican is a different type than the Iowa Republican, so it makes sense that Huckabee would not be a front-runner in NH. Huckabee's conservatism and religious appeal played better to a midwestern state than to a north-eastern state. Futhermore, the X-factor in NH is the independent vote - Obama, McCain, and Paul will all try to court the independents. Look for McCain to come out with the win. Romney will come in second. The real question will be, who will come in third. Most polls show Huckabee with the advantage, but a Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll shows a virtual tie between Huckabee, Guiliani, and Paul. Huckabee is the most likely to get 3rd, but I still think Ron Paul could make a surprise showing in one of the early states.


Dems: 1st - Barack Obama
2nd - John Edwards
3rd - Hilary Clinton

Reps: 1st - 1st - John McCain
2nd - Mitt Romney
3rd - Ron Paul

Tonight we will see...

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Today is the BIG day - the Iowa Caucuses. I can not believe this day descended upon us so quickly (the earliest in history). Here are my predictions:


1st: Barack Obama - Obama has the momentum and newfound star power.
2nd: John Edwards - Edwards plays well in living rooms and is talking about issues more openly than others.
3rd: Hilary Clinton - For Democrats and Independents Clinton represents politics as usual and all Americans are fed up. Clinton's fall will help Obama and Edwards who have both vowed not to accept corporate donations, unlike Clinton.


1st: Mike Huckabee - Huckabee seems to have a late lead, and the popular choice with conservative voters.
2nd: Mitt Romney - A moderates moderate who has the money and good looks to get second (and possibly first).
3rd: Ron Paul - Paul is the sleeper. People love him because his libertarian ideals are not politics as usual. If the youth show up today, expect a surprise showing from Paul.