Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Presidential Politics New Hampshire Style

Turns out I was right on with my Iowa predictions for Democratic presidential hopefuls. With Republicans, I knew that Ron Paul was a long shot for third, but I got Huckabee and Romney correct. Now for some news -

If you don't already know - Democrats Chris Dodd and Joe Biden drop out of race.

New Hampshire primary is today -

My Thoughts:

Democrats: Obama "fever" has struck and his momentum is too strong to stop. Hilary Clinton is self-destructing - read this article in today's New York times about some very out-of-line comments from Hilary. Furthermore, this article in Politico describes the "panic" mode at Clinton campaign headquarters. The polls show Obama in first, Hilary in second, and Edwards in third. The real question is, can Hilary hold on to second? Look for Edwards to make a surprise second place showing.

Republicans: The media says John McCain has a big lead in New Hampshire. I imagine that the New Hampshire Republican is a different type than the Iowa Republican, so it makes sense that Huckabee would not be a front-runner in NH. Huckabee's conservatism and religious appeal played better to a midwestern state than to a north-eastern state. Futhermore, the X-factor in NH is the independent vote - Obama, McCain, and Paul will all try to court the independents. Look for McCain to come out with the win. Romney will come in second. The real question will be, who will come in third. Most polls show Huckabee with the advantage, but a Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll shows a virtual tie between Huckabee, Guiliani, and Paul. Huckabee is the most likely to get 3rd, but I still think Ron Paul could make a surprise showing in one of the early states.


Dems: 1st - Barack Obama
2nd - John Edwards
3rd - Hilary Clinton

Reps: 1st - 1st - John McCain
2nd - Mitt Romney
3rd - Ron Paul

Tonight we will see...

1 comment:

gaylegray said...

I hope your prediction is right, but I fear Hilary will do better than you may be expecting in NH. I sure would like to see my boy John pick up some steam as this thing rolls on...