Saturday, January 19, 2008

Presidential Politics - Nevada & South Carolina

First, I apologize for missing Michigan! The Michigan Republican primary was a tough one to call - I'm not sure who I would have chosen anyway. Mitt Romney won, and I can certainly see why with hi s father being a former governor and Mitt himself having big ties to the state. Romney's win mixes up the Republican race once again, with three different candidates winning primaries, and goes to show that the Republicans are torn about who they want for President.

The Democratic primary in Michigan was for all intents and purposes void. Obama and Edwards did not bother putting their names on the ballot. Because of a state party dispute with the National Democratic Party, Michigan delegates won't be seated at the National Convention. I'm not sure what it's all about, but I know it had something to do with Michigan deciding to hold their primary earlier than national rules allow.

Now, for today - South Carolina Republicans are holding their primary (Democrats are next Saturday) and Nevada has both Republican and Democratic Caucuses today.

Here are my predictions:

South Carolina:
Republican -
  1. 1. Mike Huckabee - South Carolina Republicans are religious voters and they will vote for the most evangelical candidate. Huckabee is that man.
  2. 2. John McCain - For everyone else, there is McCain.
  3. 3. Fred Thompson - Thompson is the second most conservative candidate for the Republicans. He's also a big fan with gun owners.

Mitt Romney will be upset in South Carolina, as he just doesn't hold much appeal in the South. Look for this to hurt his "electibility" factor nationally.

Republican -
  1. 1. Mitt Romney - Republicans haven't spent much time in Nevada (instead focusing on South Carolina), so Mitt Romney leads in polls.
  2. 2. John McCain - A solid second place for McCain.
  3. 3. Mike Huckabee - Squeaks into third, as Nevada voters aren't big fans.

Democrats -
  1. 1. Hillary Clinton - In a super close race, Clinton will squeak out the win over Obama.
  2. 2. Barack Obama - He has lots of support in Nevada, including the largest union in the state, but he just can't stop Hillary's organizing power. Obama fans, don't despair, I am positive Obama will win in South Carolina next Saturday!
  3. 3. John Edwards - Edwards will get a very strong third place finish and he could potentially upset Hilary or Obama in Nevada.

In closing, today will be a big day for the candidates, but don't look for anything to be decides. This years race will go down to the nominating conventions in August and September.

Also, I have some more thoughts about Edwards, and about Vice Presidential politics in this race. Tune in later.

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