It wouldn't be a Tuesday primary if I didn't chime in with my picks. With two weeks gone by since the last vote, two debates, and lots of debacles, I am honestly not sure where the votes lies. Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island vote in primaries today. Vermont has always been an independent state and there is no doubt in my mind they will vote overwhelmingly for Obama. Rhode Island - I know nothing about. In the past Clinton has done well in the Northeast primaries, and the few polls out there show Clinton with a modest lead over Obama - so I'll give RI to Clinton.
Texas and Ohio are real unique beasts to figure out. I've spent all night and all morning trying to put myself in the mind and mood of the typical Ohio and Texas voter. I have also poured over some poll data and statistics (not as much as I'd like).
Overall, I am not sure at all how Texas and Ohio will vote. Honestly, I don't think anyone knows. I'd say there are two possibilities.
1) Obama wins big in both states because he has the momentum and Democrats want this thing over. The debates were essentially tied, and all the media buzz around a Clinton comeback is all for not. The voters reject Clinton's 3am attacks on Obama.
2) This thing is super close and Clinton eeks at minimum a victory in Ohio, and possibly both Texas and Ohio. She accomplished this by "chipping away" at Obama's momentum and invincibility. The "kitchen sink" strategy worked on concerned and fickle voters alike.
I tend to believe the latter is more likely, as we've seen a roller-coaster campaign so far. Democrats and Independents really do seem to be divided on what they perceive as a choice between two good options.
Here is my prediction (this comes with a low-certainty warning) -
Texas - Obama wins with a comfortable, but not large win in the primary. Obama will get a 3 point advantage over Hillary. In the Texas caucuses Obama will walk away with nearly all the delegates, with a vote percentage of at least 60%. Clinton has had some last minute scrambling and organizing for Texas caucuses, so the Obama landslide may not be as big as some Caucuses states.
Ohio - Clinton wins a nailbiter. Will it even be decided tonight??? For Ohio voters - it's all about the "economy stupid." The typical blue-collar working Ohioan strikes me as the "down-to-earth" realist type - an advantage for Clinton. Can Obama's message of Hope strike the hearts of the hopeless? Decidedly, it will go both ways in a tattered but proud state.
The Conventional Wisdom is that if Hillary does not win both Texas and Ohio she should drop out. I think if she loses them both she will bow out. But the million-dollar question is what will she do if she wins one and not the other? My guess is she'll keep on "fighting." I just don't think she knows how to accept defeat (for better or worse).
Here are some clever campaign ads that are bombarding the airwaves in Ohio and Texas:
Showing posts with label Presidential Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential Politics. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Early Results out of Kansas
With at least 3/4 of caucus voters counted in Kansas, Huckabee has a commanding lead over McCain, with nearly 62% of the vote. This is just exactly as I predicted. I am interested to see the results of Louisiana and Washington caucus/primaries.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Watch/Listen/Read All the Presidential Debates
Hello Friends.
Check this out - you can find all the Presidential debates in one place!
2008 Presidential Debate Series
Best of all - they are closed captioned for the hearing impaired. But don't worry, the audio is working too.
New Hampshire - Hillary wins Democratic primary, and John McCain wins Republican primary. I was totally wrong about Democrats in New Hampshire, and so was the force known as the "media" and so were the polls. This, ladies and gentlemen, is why we vote! Here is an interesting article by Politico.com media journalists about "Why Reporters Get it Wrong."
Or you could just take Stephen Colbert's explanation:
"If you keep voting the way you want, rather than the way we tell you you want, then pundits are going to stop telling you how to think!"
This video is also a funny, yet scary, Colbert interview with Republican Mike Huckabee. I say scary because people might actually vote for Huckabee simply because he promised Colbert the VP position!
An interesting fact about NH. While Hillary did win the highest percentage of votes with 38.99% of the vote, both Obama and Clinton actually get the same amount of "pledged" delegates for New Hampshire. There were 22 pledged delegates, and because Obama got only 2.6% less of the vote (36.39%) then mathematically they both ended up with 9 pledged delegates a piece, and John Edwards gets the other 4. You have to receive at least 15% of the vote to get delegates and John Edwards got 16.91%. I am not an expert on the process, but I know that the way in which a candidate is technically chosen as a Party's nominee is by getting the most delegates in her/his name at the Party's nominating convention. Thus, technically Obama and Clinton are very close (if not tied) with total delegates after Iowa and New Hampshire. I only say close because I don't know how Iowa assigns delegates exactly and they didn't assign them right away. So while both Clinton and Obama might not be that far apart in delegates, in reality it is the perception that one candidate or the other is "winning" that actually matters the most!
John Edwards - What should do John Edwards do? Well, it's no secret that if John Edwards dropped out then Obama would have a greater chance of beating Clinton as inevitably Edwards would put his weight (and votes) behind Obama. Obama and Edwards have been very close in philosophy, and actually have been known to team up on Clinton (see New Hampshire ABC debate from link above). While this may be true, I believe Edwards should keep fighting for multiple reasons - 1) He is a very strong candidate by himself. Unfortunately, he is being overshadowed by the popularity of Obama and Clinton, and it doesn't help that he is the "old white guy" in this race. 2) To keep Clinton and Obama honest and on their feet. 3) To show he is a viable VP candidate in 2008 (I think he would make a strong addition to the Obama ticket) and 4) Anything can happen!
Check this out - you can find all the Presidential debates in one place!
2008 Presidential Debate Series
Best of all - they are closed captioned for the hearing impaired. But don't worry, the audio is working too.
New Hampshire - Hillary wins Democratic primary, and John McCain wins Republican primary. I was totally wrong about Democrats in New Hampshire, and so was the force known as the "media" and so were the polls. This, ladies and gentlemen, is why we vote! Here is an interesting article by Politico.com media journalists about "Why Reporters Get it Wrong."
Or you could just take Stephen Colbert's explanation:
"If you keep voting the way you want, rather than the way we tell you you want, then pundits are going to stop telling you how to think!"
This video is also a funny, yet scary, Colbert interview with Republican Mike Huckabee. I say scary because people might actually vote for Huckabee simply because he promised Colbert the VP position!
An interesting fact about NH. While Hillary did win the highest percentage of votes with 38.99% of the vote, both Obama and Clinton actually get the same amount of "pledged" delegates for New Hampshire. There were 22 pledged delegates, and because Obama got only 2.6% less of the vote (36.39%) then mathematically they both ended up with 9 pledged delegates a piece, and John Edwards gets the other 4. You have to receive at least 15% of the vote to get delegates and John Edwards got 16.91%. I am not an expert on the process, but I know that the way in which a candidate is technically chosen as a Party's nominee is by getting the most delegates in her/his name at the Party's nominating convention. Thus, technically Obama and Clinton are very close (if not tied) with total delegates after Iowa and New Hampshire. I only say close because I don't know how Iowa assigns delegates exactly and they didn't assign them right away. So while both Clinton and Obama might not be that far apart in delegates, in reality it is the perception that one candidate or the other is "winning" that actually matters the most!
John Edwards - What should do John Edwards do? Well, it's no secret that if John Edwards dropped out then Obama would have a greater chance of beating Clinton as inevitably Edwards would put his weight (and votes) behind Obama. Obama and Edwards have been very close in philosophy, and actually have been known to team up on Clinton (see New Hampshire ABC debate from link above). While this may be true, I believe Edwards should keep fighting for multiple reasons - 1) He is a very strong candidate by himself. Unfortunately, he is being overshadowed by the popularity of Obama and Clinton, and it doesn't help that he is the "old white guy" in this race. 2) To keep Clinton and Obama honest and on their feet. 3) To show he is a viable VP candidate in 2008 (I think he would make a strong addition to the Obama ticket) and 4) Anything can happen!
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