Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Potomac Tuesday

Hello Friends!

Turns out I was WRONG on Saturday! Obama swept the Saturday races, including Washington state, and won Maine on Sunday too. Why was I wrong about Washington State? Because Washington held caucuses, and Obama has won nearly every caucus. Why does he do so well??? Obama supporters are fired up and excited about his campaign. It takes real heart to go out in the bitter cold of winter and then stand in line for hours to make sure you are counted; it is much easier to take 10 minutes at lunch-time to make a name on the ballot. The huge turnout for Democrats in all states shows the clear enthusiasm among Democrats for their choices, but the real prize for excitement belongs to Obama.

For the Republicans, Huckabee is still hanging in there. I attribute this to the Republican Party's sharp ideological divide between social conservatives and moderate conservatives, McCain's complacence, and the Media's pre-mature declaration of McCain as the Republican nominee. What reason do McCain supporters have to get out and vote if they think the race is already over? On the other hand, the media bias just fuels the Huckabee grassroots fire, which already had some great kindling.

Today the District of Columbia (DC), Maryland, and Virginia, are all holding primaries (known as the Potomac primary).

Here is how the candidates will do:

1) Obama will sweep all three contest, and pick up the most delegates. The vote will be especially decisive in Maryland and DC, with a much closer margin between Obama and Clinton in Virginia.

2) Huckabee will edge out McCain in Virginia. This will be a big win for Huckabee. Two reasons why this will happen. 1) Virginia has an "open" primary, meaning that reagardless of your party affiliation you can vote either Republican or Democrat. Conventional wisdom says this could benefit McCain, being that he is more moderate, but in reality, the open primary benefits Obama the most. Obama will suck away McCain's independents, and leave the deeply conservative religious voters to come out for Huckabee. 2) There is a sizable number of evangelical Christian voters in Virginia, being that it is the home of Jerry Falwell's church and Liberty University.

3)McCain wins easily in DC, and narrowly edges out Huckabee in Maryland. However; don't be surprised if the Republican voters in Maryland come out for Huckabee - never underestimate the power of the "underdog."

Let's see how it goes!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Jason - You are a true political prognosticator! No one can match your record of prediction. Keep up the excellent work with this blog! - John M.